A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
